The article examines the renewed war in northern Ethiopia following the resumption of open fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan forces on 22–23 September 2026. It traces the collapse of the Pretoria peace agreement, the emergence of a new alliance linking the TPLF with Fano and other regional armed groups, and the resulting shift in Ethiopia’s conflict dynamics. The report assesses the risk of a prolonged war across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, while highlighting the potential involvement of Eritrea and the threat to the strategic Addis Ababa–Djibouti corridor. It also considers the humanitarian, regional and operational implications, including displacement, disrupted air travel and communications, supply chain risks, and increased kidnapping and security threats.